It has not been that long when Russian President Putin basked in the glory of being called the puppeteer on the world stage. This of course primarily stemmed from the subservient behavior of then US President Donald Trump towards Putin, China’s preference to use “soft power” and Angela Merkel’s decision to retire.
Historically, despite its vast natural resources and an educated population, Russia has never been able to reach its full economic potential. During the days of pure communism, there was no incentive or opportunity for the average citizen. In a famous cartoon, a Russian bureaucrat described his own situation as “I pretend to work, and the government pretends to pay.” The Russian empire – known as USSR – imploded from corruption within the communist party. It has since been replaced superficially by democracy and a rudimentary market economy.
Beyond the surface, Russia today is a dictatorship and has an economic system controlled by Putin’s friends and cronies. It is not an accident that Putin is a former KGB agent because it was the KGB that controlled all the information during the communist days. Over the years Putin has skillfully used his access to information to control the levers of power and use of its economic resources. According to the western media, collectively Putin and his oligarch friends control most of Russia’s businesses. Lacking economic institutions, rampant corruption, and gross inefficiency, Russia has not been able to attract significant foreign investment except for retailers like McDonald’s, Starbucks, and Ikea. All three are in the process of phasing their operations out of Russia.
However, there are no doubts about Russian military power and Putin had skillfully leveraged that until his invasion of Ukraine. He annexed Crimea without many protests from the rest of the world. He outmaneuvered first Obama and then Trump to gain a military foothold in Syria and successfully thwarted attempts to bring about the fall of Hafez Al Assad. He has come to a working relationship with NATO member Turkey. He has even countered the US-UK-Australia-India military alliance with joint exercises with China and Iran.
Gradually Putin had been trying to regain the Russian sphere of influence with varied approaches to countries that were part of the USSR. Belarus is a natural ally where the autocratic Lukashenko needs Putin to stay in power. It operates in the same manner as it operated under USSR, and we should not be surprised that Belarus has been one of the staging areas for the Ukrainian invasion. Belarus also stands to benefit if Russia follows through with its plan of splitting Ukraine into several subservient entities and gives one of those as a “present” to Belarus.
Russia militarily has already intervened in Georgia and successfully stifled its attempt to align with the west. Most recently it has also extended its influence on Kazakhstan by aligning
itself with the forces of Kassim-Jomart Tokayev, who is in a power struggle with the family of former strongman Nazarbayev. Turkmenistan and Tajikistan are also backing off from their initial overtures to the United States, particularly as the US is increasingly perceived as an unreliable ally after the debacle in Afghanistan.
Putin’s shrewd Chess moves on the world stage have come to a halt in the form of fierce resistance from the Ukrainian people. Putin’s dream of restoring the USSR is not possible if Ukraine becomes part of the EU and NATO. He knows that countries like Lithuania, Moldovia, Latvia, and Poland are unlikely to return to the fold. Ukraine is, therefore, even more important to Russia and Putin. After his failure to influence domestic politics and turning Zelensky into another “Lukashenko,” Putin chose the military option. Here also his expectation of Ukraine quickly folding under the overwhelming power of the Russian military has proven to be wrong. Militarily, despite the support of the USA and European allies, Russia will probably win a prolonged war.
In the greater war of strategic positioning on the world stage, Putin has already lost. Almost all countries in the world including China (the stealth superpower) have affirmed the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Concurrently, China has thrown an economic lifeline to Russia to survive the severe economic sanctions. On the other hand, key US “ally” India, is yet to condemn Russia and is taking advantage of shortage and disruptions by buying and selling cheap Russian oil. After futile attempts to persuade Putin from invading Ukraine, most western world leaders are publicly shunning Putin.
At the current time, it seems Putin has the support of the Russian military and most of the population, but this could gradually erode. Evoking the glory days of Russian power will not work as the Russian people slowly realize that their access to their favorite vacation spots in Europe is drastically reduced, familiar signs of Starbucks and Mcdonald’s disappear and well-paid jobs with Western businesses go away. Educated Russians are quietly slipping away through its porous borders and seeking jobs in the west. Even Putin’s favorite oligarchs are unhappy about the seizure of their assets throughout the world. It will not be a surprise if the fall of Putin is orchestrated internally by his own closest confidants. The world and Russia would be a better place without him.
Author: Faisal M. Rahman, Ph.D. Professor & Founding Dean, The Graham School of Management, Saint Xavier University, Chicago, IL 60655, USA. Contacts- rahman@sxu.edu . Mobile – 1-312-533-0452