No Formula Exiting Lockdown

Date: May 21, 2020 at 11:34:42 AM CDT

Special Correspondent: Dr. Faisal Rahman

Every country is facing the unique situation of battling a virus with no known cure along with the specter of a 1930s economic depression. While the current economic slowdown can be described as a Coronavirus induced coma, the path out of this crisis is fraught with dangers.

There is a consensus among healthcare experts that a vaccine is at least a few months away. The ability to mass-produce and make such a vaccine available to the world is a 12 to 18-month proposition. With this scenario, the world is facing potentially a 10 percent contraction in the world economy and corollary effects of huge unemployment and even mass starvation. Economic experts, however, cannot come to a consensus on a lockdown exit strategy which strikes an acceptable balance between healthcare and economic risks.

The countries which have been ahead of us in terms of experiencing the challenge of tackling this virus have chosen different paths and it is far too early to cite one or the other as the best practice. Germany has allowed small shops, zoos, libraries, car dealers and some manufacturing to re-open, but, but they have begun to see a spike in more Coronavirus cases. Denmark and Norway have opened nurseries, elementary and middle schools as well as one-to-one services like hairdressers and aestheticians. Spain has allowed construction and manufacturing to operate. All are consistent in recommending face-masks and social distancing.

The only outlier has been Sweden where the government has limited its role in providing guidelines and everything seems to be operating near normal. It should be noted that more than half the Swedish population live in single-person households and are generally healthy and disciplined. Each country’s situation is different and for a vast country like ours, no single formula can work. Some of our larger states in terms of population and area like New York, Illinois, California, and Texas are bigger than many countries and may need to come up with different plans for different regions within their own states.

Here in Illinois, the differences are clear from lawsuits brought by State Representatives Darren Bailey and John Cabello against Governor J.B. Pritzker’s “stay-at-home” order. Governor Andrew Cuomo has acknowledged that “upstate” New York will probably be allowed easing of controls before New York City. A similar path plan is necessary for “downstate” and less densely populated areas in Illinois. This will indeed be a delicate balance between saving lives and saving livelihood. It is clear that vulnerabilities to this virus are more among older people and it spreads rapidly in densely populated areas.

Densely populated areas are also the home to the poorer segments of our population who are disproportionately minorities. The economic path out of this economic lockdown; therefore, must include a social and economic support net to those vulnerable sections of the population. We need to start by being honest and transparent with the public that we have a very tough climb back up and it is not going to be business as usual for at least 2 to 3 years. Easing out of the lockdown for each region must be contingent on the fact that the epidemic must be under control. Epidemiologists across the world are defining “under control” as less than 1 percent of the population infected. For that to happen, the first step is to make testing much more widely available than it is today.

White House task force for COVID-19 did come up with a phased-in guideline for opening up various regions of the country. Those guidelines must be made mandatory and enforced locally. Better hygiene and social distancing can simply buy us time but do not banish the virus. Any premature let up can put us back in a worse situation than before. One of the biggest fallout from the pandemic is the loss of consumer confidence. With grave uncertainties about health and jobs facing them, no one is buying a house or car or anything expensive. Restaurants, the travel industry, and retail have come to a standstill.

The path to restoring the confidence level, creation of jobs, and job security will be long and arduous. The government will have to step into this in a much bigger way for a long time and beyond the easy task of printing money/checks for individuals and businesses. While we accelerate our search for a cure for COVID-19, we need to seek answers to the following question – How will we ensure that we are better prepared to face a similar pandemic in the future? All infection disease experts agree that there will be viruses in the future, perhaps stronger than the current one which is causing devastation across the world. Would we allow ourselves ever to be in a position where the source of the virus and medical supplies to fight the virus come from the same place – China?

Every sector of the economy from healthcare to education will be restructured by this pandemic. We have to develop a path for newly unemployed millions to find alternate career paths. Meanwhile, we may have to settle for the old fashioned way of government becoming the employer of last resort. We need to rebuild our falling infrastructure – bridges, highways, and airports. There are already plans to hire thousands of people for the census. We need even higher numbers for testing and contact-tracing people for keeping COVID-19 or similar viruses at bay.

Finally, viruses like COVID-19 do not have borders and we cannot prevent future pandemics by closing borders. We do need to have a less vulnerable economy and produce essential medicine and supplies here in the United States or at least in North America. The long-run solution is not America First and Alone. We need to lead the world in finding a global solution and a coordinated response to economic and healthcare challenges. For more information, contact Karla D. Thomas, KT Communications at 773.575.9477. – Content Curated By MG Media

(Faisal M. Rahman, Ph.D. is an economist who writes OpEd’s on the economy, higher education, and healthcare. Dr. Rahman, founding dean of Saint Xavier University‘s business school as well as president and CEO of APAC, a pain management center that consists of a group of healthcare companies, multiple clinics, and outpatient surgery).